State of College Football

College Football has evolved since its genius throughout the years. But in recent years it has evolved faster than we’ve ever seen. College Football in 2024 looks different than the game just a couple of years ago. From adding name image and likeness for players, to bringing in a what seems like a never ending transfer portal cirrus, to conferences disappearing and super conferences forming, to adding a 12 team playoff, this isn’t your grandpas college football anymore.  So what is the game now and where do we go from here?

NIL & Transfer portal

Let’s start with NIL and the transfer portal. In 2021 the NCAA lifted its NIL policy allowing players to make money off their Name Image and likeness. Since then, we’ve seen college football players’ compensation skyrocket past anything we thought imaginable.  

We have college players making multiple millions of dollars to play college football. Just a couple of years after opening NIL it seems like the flood gates have opened in the NIL world. We are now in a world where high school recruits are getting offered millions of dollars to attend a school and play football. We have college players getting offered money to leave one school and come to another, sometimes in the same conference. We have low profile schools paying kids more than we thought they could ever afford. We have even seen private jet companies and big corporate brands like FedEx commit money to schools for NIL.

As for the transfer portal it gets even crazier. The Transfer portal has been open only a couple of years and each cycle we’ve seen thousands of thousands of players enter the transfer portal. Each year the transfer portal has grown by the number of players entering the transfer portal.

We are now in a spot where it’s a real possibility that you have a player that, because of the transfer portal, could graduate playing for 3 or 4 different teams.  This is where coaches and administrators have voiced their frustration the most. We’ve even seen some coaches leave the game because of their frustration with the state of college football in regards of the transfer portal.

What opened as allowing players that have graduated to finish their careers at a different school has evolved into full on free agency and bidding wars. We went from the NCAA grid locking waivers to have immediate eligibility to granting immediate eligibility to everyone.

This game that we love has changed more over the last 5 years than I think we have seen since its genesis. But this is where we are, the question is where do we go from here? There has been some talk of a revenue share for players which I think could be a good valuable option. I think that NIL is harder to find a good solution compared to the transfer portal. But I think if we can get to a point where players share in the revenue across FBS, and the power 4 conference members have equal NIL options would be a good start. I think tying in some kind of contract or stipulation that pushes for players to stay at said school would be a great bonus.

As for the transfer portal I believe there are multiple options for solutions. I am in the camp that we should allow each player to transfer once with immediate eligibility. After if they would like to transfer, they need to sit out a year before playing for the new team.  I am also in favor of rewarding those that have graduated, keeping the grad transfer rule. I’m all for players gaining financial rewards and transferring teams with some guardrails. The state of chaos our sports stands in is not sustainable.

Conference Realignment

Coming in to the 2024 season we have several conferences that will welcome some new programs. We are going from having 5 power conferences to just 4 with the Pac 12 dissolving. The conference that led this charge of super conferences, The SEC will welcome in two teams from the Big 12.

Texas and Oklahoma prepare for their first season as SEC members. Two programs that have rich history or winning, traditions, and championships. Texas comes off a 12-2 record in 2023 with a Big 12 championship and spot in the college football playoffs. Texas and coach Steve Sarkisian have brought Texas back into one of the top programs in the country for the first time since the Vince Young days. I think Texas steps into the SEC as one of the top dogs and SEC championship contenders’ year in and year out. We will see how Texas adjusts to the talent and speed of the SEC but as for off the field recruiting, NIL, transfer portal world Texas will not miss a beat.

Oklahoma comes in with some of the same success as Texas over the years in Norman but has a higher mountain to climb than Texas. Oklahoma is coming off a 10-2 record in 2023 which was a great leap from going just 6-6 in 2022. Oklahoma hasn’t won a big 12 title since 2020. Since then they brought in a new coach in Brent Venables. Oklahoma has been in the top 10 of recruiting every year for the past 3 years. Oklahoma is not short of talent, but there is a difference in being a top 10 recruiter in the BIG 12 and the SEC. In the Big 12 that can get you a top 2 class for the conference in the SEC that can get you an 7th or 8th best class in the conference.

Both teams will have their hands full trading scheduled teams like Kansas, Baylor, and Iowa st for Tennessee, Texas Am, Florida. 2024 will be a good year to see exactly how Texas and Oklahoma shape up in the SEC given both have tough SEC schedules.  

The Big 10 will welcome in USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington. These top their teams of the Pac 12 will come in to a loaded Big 10 hoping to contend for championships. USC the most accomplished program from the Pac 12 comes off a 7-5 2023 season. A season that fell well short of expectations having the number 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, in Caleb Williams. USC will need to find a fix on the defensive side of the ball as they come to the Big 10 if they want to compete for championships. USC gave up more than 40 points in 5 of their games in 2023.

UCLA comes limping into the big 10 from the Pac 12. UCLA hasn’t won a conference championship since 1998. They come into the big 10 with a 35-34 record since 2018 in the Chip Kelly era. UCLA will have a lot of work to do to fight for the Big 10 championship. UCLA will have their work cut out for them in their first season in the Big 10. Their 2024 schedule consists of a trip to Baton Rouge vs LSU, Back to back weeks vs Oregon and at Penn State, as well as games vs Iowa, USC, and Washington.

Oregon comes into the Big 10 after going 11-1 in the regular season and a trip to the Pac 12 championship game in 2024. Oregon comes in as a program that is used to double digit win season. Coach Dan Lanning has continued that tradition at Oregon. Oregon has been known for scoring a lot of points over the last decade. As they come into the Big 10 they will need to show they can do this not only vs middle tier Pac 12 teams but great Big 10 defenses. Oregon in my opinion has a chance to flip the Big 10 game style on its head. If Oregon can come out with speed and offense in the Big 10 it could be a great success for Oregon in a conference known for defense. Oregon closed the 2024 recruiting class as the number 3 team in the country. If Oregon can recruit and score at the level they have of recent years look out for the Ducks in the Big 10.

Washington comes off one of the best seasons in program history. Washington behind Michael Pinix Jr went undefeated in the regular season winning the Pac 12 Championship. Washington followed up with a win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl for the Semifinal of the college football playoffs. The Huskies would fall short vs Michigan in the national championship game, but Washington had a historic season in their last season in the Pac 12. Washington threw the ball all over the field all season in 2023. As Washington comes in losing their star QB and Head coach fans can expect a bit of a rebuild season from Washington in 2024.

12 Team playoff

The 2024 College Football season will welcome in a new 12 playoff format. This will consist of the 5 highest ranked conference champions receiving automatic bids. The rest of the spots will go to the seven highest ranked teams remaining. The top 4 teams will receive a first-round bye.

The match ups in the first round will go as follows: #5 vs #12, #6 vs #11, #7 vs #10, #8 vs #9. The higher ranked seed will host the playoff games for the first round of the playoffs. In the quarterfinal round the new years six bowl games will play host.

This 12-team playoff brings a lot of excitement going into the 2024. Instead of having to be a top 4 team to reach the playoffs, now teams will just need to be a top 12 team. For example, the 4 seed last year, Alabama was 12-1. Whereas the 12 seed was 10-2.  

As imagined some people were against this 12-team playoff set up, saying things like 8-4 teams shouldn’t deserve a spot. But if we just look at last year the worst record of teams ranked 1-18 in final rankings was 9-3. So, most of these playoffs are going to consist mainly of 0,1,2 loss teams.

If a college football fan looks at this 12-team playoff and cannot get behind a team hosting a PLAYOFF game on campus I’m not sure they are a true college football fan. To put this in perspective FSU, UGA, OSU, and Oregon would have hosted a playoff game on campus. These are some of the best atmospheres in a late October matchup but imagine the atmosphere at OSU hosting a playoff game. That’s something I can get behind.

As we’ve seen in past years bowl games outside of the playoffs have been glorified scrimmages at best. With this 12-team playoff we will continue to see this trend. We are past the era where Bowl games really matter outside of the playoffs. Instead of trying to fix that we’ve gone towards making the playoffs bigger and the focus, which I believe is the right move for college football.

I think if we can stay here with 12 team playoff this will be perfect for the game. There will be talks of making it bigger and bigger especially as we see the financial gain, that’s just how the game is today. But I am excited to see how the 2024 season plays out and can’t wait for the 12 team playoff.